Blog · Page 9

Daily lessons in long-term investing

Plain-English lessons on judging businesses, reading annual reports and staying patient — 370 articles and counting, a new one most mornings. Educational only: none of these is a research report or a recommendation.

DuPont Three-Factor Decomposition of RoE: How to See Through the Most Misunderstood Ratio in Indian Investing

Return on Equity (RoE) is the single most-quoted profitability ratio in Indian investing — and the most dangerously misunderstood. A brokerage WhatsApp group will scream “this…

Self-Attribution Bias: Why Indian Investors Take Credit for Wins and Blame Luck for Losses

You remember every stock you bought that went up. The 3x gain on that mid-cap chemical play? Clearly a product of your research. The 7-bagger in…

Working Capital Days & Cash Conversion Cycle

The lesson buried inside those numbers is simple: most market participants are taking directional bets on price without ever opening the balance sheet. Working-capital metrics are…

The Fat Pitch Principle: Warren Buffett’s Ted-Williams-Inspired Rule for Swing Selectivity in Indian Value Investing

Benjamin Graham taught us the grammar of value investing; Warren Buffett gave us its governing metaphor. In his 1997 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett reached…

Capacity Utilisation: When Existing Plants Can Fund the Next Leg of Growth

Capacity Utilisation becomes more useful when investors translate it into audited numbers, cleaner disclosure, and better minority-shareholder readability.

Base Rate Neglect: The Kahneman-Tversky 1973 Cognitive Bias Behind ₹1.8 Lakh Crore of Indian F&O Losses

Imagine you meet Ramesh, a 34-year-old software engineer in Bengaluru. He reads two books a year on investing, watches a 15-minute market video every morning, and…

Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The Single Most Important Leverage Metric Every Indian Value Investor Must Master

The Debt-to-Equity Ratio measures how much external borrowed capital a company uses relative to the capital supplied by its owners (shareholders). In the simplest language: for…

Invert, Always Invert: Charlie Munger’s Cornerstone Mental Model for Avoiding Small-Cap Disasters in Indian Value Investing

The most useful question a value investor can ask is not “how do I get rich?” It is the exact opposite: “how do I make absolutely…

Switching Costs: The Invisible Lock-In That Protects Great Businesses for Decades

Switching Costs becomes more useful when investors translate it into audited numbers, cleaner disclosure, and better minority-shareholder readability.

Manish Goel’s Information Decay Theory: Why the Warren Buffett Quotes You Hear on Every YouTube Podcast Can Never Make You Rich

Millions of YouTube finance podcasts. Zero documented life changes. Yet numerous followers of my work report their financial lives have changed, and my CAGR is in…

The Scuttlebutt Method: Philip Fisher’s Original Framework for Verifying Management Claims — How Indian Value Investors Can Use Primary-Source Checks to Separate Storytelling From Substance

In 1958, an unassuming San Francisco money manager named Philip A. Fisher published a book that would quietly rewire value investing. In Common Stocks and Uncommon…

The Availability Heuristic: Why Recent Headlines Distort Indian Portfolio Decisions

Ask any Indian retail investor in April 2026 to name three “interesting” stocks. The names that come up are almost always the stocks that dominated the…

Segment Reporting: When Management Uses Disclosure to Hide or Reveal the Best Business

Segment reporting looks boring until it saves you from believing the wrong story. A company can report healthy consolidated revenue, respectable profit, and a confident management…

Owner Earnings: The Buffett Adjustment That Reveals True Cash Profits

Buffett’s concern was straightforward. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (and their Indian equivalent, Ind AS) require companies to report a net profit figure that includes non-cash charges…

Overconfidence Bias: Why 93% of Indian F&O Traders Lose Money — How Barber & Odean’s Landmark Research, Validated by SEBI’s 2024 Evidence, Explains the Zerodha-Groww Revolution and the Anti-Overconfidence Checklist Every Serious Long-Term Investor Must Adopt

Barber & Odean's Nobel-adjacent 2000 study, validated by SEBI's 2024 evidence that ~93% of Indian retail F&O traders lose money, explains the meta-bias that makes every…

Deferred Tax: The Accounting Line Item That Can Mislead Even Experienced Investors

Deferred tax can quietly change how reported profit should be read. The line is less about jargon and more about timing, profit quality, and whether management…

Rights Issues: When Fresh Capital Helps Minority Shareholders and When It Hurts Them

A rights issue can preserve minority ownership or quietly dilute it. The difference lies in why the company needs money, how management behaves, and whether investors…

Mental Accounting Bias: The Silent Wealth Destroyer That Makes Indian Investors Treat ‘Profits’ Differently From ‘Capital’ — How Richard Thaler’s Nobel-Winning Insight Explains Why Retail Investors Underperform the Sensex Year After Year

Ask a room of 100 retail investors in Chandigarh, Mumbai, or Bengaluru a single honest question: “If you received ₹50,000 as a Diwali bonus and another…

Segment Reporting: The Hidden Disclosure in Indian Annual Reports That Reveals True Business Quality — How Smart Value Investors Decode Ind AS 108 to Find Multibaggers the Crowd Misses

Most Indian investors read the headline profit, glance at the EPS, and close the annual report. They never scroll to Note 38 — or whichever note…

Cement Sector Analysis Framework: The 8-Factor Checklist Every Indian Value Investor Must Use to Separate Multibagger Cement Stocks from Value Traps in India’s ₹2 Lakh Crore Super-Cycle

India consumed roughly 453 million tonnes of cement in FY25, up 6.3% from 426 million tonnes a year earlier, and CRISIL now pegs FY26 demand growth…

Normalized Earnings Analysis: How to See Through Cyclical Noise and Find the True Earning Power of Indian Stocks — The Professional Valuation Technique Every Serious Value Investor Must Master

The single most dangerous mistake in Indian value investing is valuing a company on a single year’s earnings. That year could be a cyclical peak. It…

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: Ken Fisher’s Revolutionary Valuation Metric That Reveals Undervalued Indian Multibaggers When Earnings Temporarily Collapse — The Forgotten Formula Every Value Investor Must Master in 2026

Every value investor eventually runs into the same painful question: how do you value a quality Indian business when its earnings have temporarily collapsed? Think of…

The Barbell Strategy for Indian Value Investors: Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile Portfolio Architecture That Pairs Ironclad Safety With Explosive Multibagger Upside

Nassim Taleb's barbell strategy teaches Indian value investors to combine 80-90% ultra-safe assets with 10-20% high-upside quality small-caps for a truly antifragile portfolio.

Porter’s Five Forces: The Strategic Framework That Reveals Which Indian Industries Create Multibagger Wealth — And Why Industry Structure Beats Stock Picking

Michael Porter's Five Forces framework decodes industry structure before stock selection. Rivalry, entry barriers, supplier and buyer power, and substitutes determine whether industries create or destroy…

The securities quoted in these articles are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.